Work Package 1

Baselines and Variability in the Benguela Current Large marine Ecosystem (BCLME)

The intention of Work Package 1 (WP1) is to describe the baseline state of the BCLME (i.e. drivers/responses across the realms of the ecosystem, societal, and macroeconomic systems), and identify those drivers, at a range of scales, that can induce/manifest Extreme Events in the system. It is a set of activities (literature search, historical/reanalysis data analysis, and guided and generated by WP5) that will show what variables matter in the changes in the system. This will produce candidate variables, reference levels, and indicators that we will select to feed into WP2-4 for assessing the status, drivers, and resilience of the ecosystem. WP1 achieves the IEA’s ‘developing indicators’ goals. The structure of this WP is guided by the themes of Upwelling & Coastal Dynamics, Ecosystem-level Considerations, Biodiversity & Fisheries, and Macro-economy & Policy.

Key Research Question: What are the baseline states and normal variability of all variables at all scales, from which departures outside of this envelope can be characterised as Extreme Events in the BCLME?

Key Research Outcomes: Consolidated and updated knowledge on the normal ranges of variability of the integrated BCLME system.

Reserach Leads: Deon Louw (MFMR), Marek Ostrowski (IMR)