Work Package 3

The Future

Several publications have discussed possible futures of the BCLME, but little empirical data or quantitative projections of future climate change with corresponding uncertainty analysis exist to assess the likelihood of different plausible futures. Climatic/environmental extremes may stretch the biological functioning of the BCLME to and beyond its current limits, and likely well beyond the current adaptive capacities of key fish stocks and their predators, as well as fisheries and the coastal communities that depend on these. We merely need to consider some of the current environmentally-induced changes that are challenging our societies bordering the BCLME and its sub-regions to appreciate the extent of the likely repercussions of such changes. Building on WP1-3, we will develop qualitative and quantitative projections and scenarios of the variability and Extreme Events in the BCLME, with consideration of how these might impact the four themes identified in WP1. This will require the utilisation of indicators (as per WP5). WP3’s links with all stakeholders will be mediated by the stakeholder engagement task team in WP5. The BCLME is nested within the SE Atlantic basin and consideration will be paid to processes operating within the South Atlantic Ocean at a basin scale.

Key Research Question: What are the likely futures of the BCLME under a changing climate?

Key Research Outcomes: Knowledge resulting from projections of the most likely climate change futures and related risks, vulnerabilities, and tipping points for the future of the region to 2070 with regards to the BCLME ecosystems, societies, governance, and macroeconomic systems

Research Leads: Francois Englebrecht (WITS), Lynne Shannon (UCT/Amethyst Independent Facilitation)