Work Package 2

Trends in the Mean State and Variability, and Extreme Event Properties

Work Package 2 (WP2) deals primarily with the analysis of time-series data that were initially scoped and selected in WP5 and subjected to baseline analysis in WP1. A set of variables and indicators that are informative, useful and relevant to stakeholders will be analysed—including biophysical, ecological, and socio-economic variables/indicators.

Key Research Question: What are the trends in the mean state and variability of the system variables, and what are the Extreme Events properties of selected variables in the BCLME?

Key Research Outcomes: Knowledge of trends and ExEv in the physical environment of the BCLME, what their causes are, and coupling with the consequent responses at the level of the ecosystem, societies, and the macroeconomy.

Research Leads: Mathieu Rouault (UCT), AJ Smit (UWC)